Wednesday, January 20, 2010

So what's the most likely scenario?

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5 comments:

Mr roT said...

Fun piece, but there are too many, detailed choices. None of the above will happen.

I think there are three possibilities that make more sense to think about.

1) Obama, Reid, Pelosi dig in and try to force this. Voters get even more pissed off.

2) The three lose HC"R" in the Senate or House, even after trying to hammer out a compromise, one way or another, when moderates bail. Contained, but serious Dem losses in the mid-terms.

3) Reid retires early and Pelosi goes into hiding, replaced on TV by moderate Dems, and Obama moderates also, like Cllinton. Dems can shake this off.

1/20/2010 3:50 PM
Tecumseh said...

Hmmm... VDH is indeed more detailed in his categories. But, all in all, he includes what you say, only perhaps in a more detailed way -- while leaving open some other, less plausible scenarios. So I say VDH on points (3-2) over Rot.

1/20/2010 4:10 PM
Mr roT said...

What's the Richter scale on this?

1/20/2010 4:25 PM
Mr roT said...

Another consideration. I am starting to feel sorry for Obama, like I do for clueless students that go from overconfidence to folding at the first exam.

I wonder if the electorate will go the pity mode, particularly with some mix of racial guilt, and forgive a lot of abortions, or if the electorate will give way to pure, righteous, justified rage like with Carter.

1/20/2010 4:30 PM
Tecumseh said...

Good question, Herr Rot. I dunno the answer. A lot depends also on how foreign affairs play out. Remember, Carter screwed up pretty badly internally, but nothing really catastrophic -- if anything, much less so than Obama. What really did him in was his total screw-up on Iran, and his overall weakness vis-a-vis the Soviets. (He did try to make a comeback, with Afghanistan, but it was too little, too late.)

So far, foreign affairs have been sub-par, but nothing catastrophic -- thank God. The pantybomber, though, revealed some glaring weaknesses in our defenses. So did that suicide bombing that wiped out that CIA station in Afghanistan.

One tends to focus on the nitty-gritty of politics before and after important elections. But there are some wider trends one needs to keep an eye on in the meantime. BTW, I sincerely hope Brown will provide a fresh voice in the national security debate. He started a bit during the campaign, but debating such stuff with a libtard like Coakley is hopeless. In Washington, though, he could conceivably raise his game.

1/21/2010 12:24 AM

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