Saturday, October 24, 2009

Stephen Walt and Prescience

5. The "surge" has failed as a strategy. Increased U.S. troop strength brought internal violence back down to 2005 levels, but political reconciliation did not occur and the level of violence is now rising. Judged by the Administration's own criteria, the strategy has not worked. Current force levels are not sustainable, and prolonging the surge would damage our armed forces further and weaken our global position even more.

But our scholar Walt has a new point of view! He's changed everything about his Weltanschauung since being caught so wrong! OK, ready? Here's Walt's new vision!

Obama's decision should be easy, given that the costs of the war are rising, the benefits are few and the odds of success are small. If he explains that calculus to the American people and says it is time to leave, most of them will agree.

You see?! He changed the context from Iraq to Afghanistan! Isn't he smart? I think it's called generalization!

Of course he's gotten off of blaming everything on the (ahem) lobby, lately... אידיוט, and I am sure we will find something around that he's written explaining why he was mistaken about that whole bit of unpleasantness in Iraq. Hey, the guy's a pro; he's got a retraction somewhere...looking....

2 comments:

Mr roT said...

Where's Mearsheimer in all of this conjvulvation?

Mr roT said...

Ah. This is that joke from Abe & Louie's way back when?

I didn't know you knew it.

A waiter told it to me while the ladies were off in the loo.

Great restaurant. This place, not so much.