Sunday, May 18, 2008

Hope.


[...] A candidate who cannot get elected is being nominated by a party that cannot be defeated, while a candidate who is eminently electable is running as the nominee of a party doomed to defeat.

In this environment, McCain can win by running to the center.[...]

So McCain doesn't have to spend a lot of time wooing his base. What he does need to do is reduce the size of the synapse over which independents and fearful Democrats need to pass in order to back his candidacy. If the synapse is wide, they will stay with Obama. But if they perceive McCain as an acceptable alternative, there is every chance that they will cross over to back him in November.

If the GOP nominee were Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, independents and Democrats might not vote Republican even if they became convinced that Obama is some kind of sleeper agent sent to charm and conquer our democracy. Even Rudy Giuliani, with his penchant for confrontation, might have elicited sufficient doubts among Democrats to hold them in line for Obama.


[Add a video to spice things up. -- AI.]

12 comments:

Tecumseh said...

So McCain doesn't have to spend a lot of time wooing his base. This is BS. Who's gonna pay for his campaign, then? Hillary Democrats and/or Independents? Don't make me laugh. Ah, I forgot -- McCain decided he has 0 chance raising money, so he went on the dole. Swell. This leaves Obama free to raise a ton -- I mean, a gadzillion tons -- of money, and out-spend McCain something like 3-1 or 4-1. Money speaks, man!

Tecumseh said...

Forget about the base. It will be there. Says who? Maybe they'll just keep on golfing, and not pay attention to the election. What's the difference?

Mr roT said...

The argument is that the base will be sufficiently annoyed by Obama to get out and vote. If the Meersheimer types are right, McCain will have no trouble getting money from those uninspired by Obama's soaring talk of appeasement of jihadists.

Mr roT said...

thanks for the preacher, ai. He had been taken down form youtube before and had never seen his sermon. what a nut. ain't got the sense to pour piss out of a boot...

Tecumseh said...

The guy is quite amazing. If you look at his other videos, you'll see he says he did time in the mid-70s for (attempted?) burglary in Miami Beach, and then he found Jesus in prison. Looks like he lost a wire sometimes along the way, but his delivery is quite good -- much more animated than McCain's, by the way.

Mr roT said...

i liked particularly his, uh, description, of Obama's mother...

Tecumseh said...

Here's more on the guy: he completed college and graduated from the Union Theological Seminary in Manhattan, earning a master’s degree in divinity in 1985. We may have bumped into each other -- I lived for a couple of years at the UTS. Incidentally, Obama was also around Columbia at the time. It's a small world.

Mr roT said...

You were at the epicenter of black lunacy, AI. Explains a lot.

Pepe le Pew said...

The Cirque du Soleil forgot to lock his cage one night ?

Mr roT said...

Sounds to me more like Ouagadougou, NY, but that's just me...

Tecumseh said...

JJ: Yep, those were the days. You ever lived on 125th Street? It's the main drag in Harlem. I enjoyed it, though it looked kind of run down. The elevated #1 train on B'way & 125th looked straight out of The French Connection.

Mr roT said...

frogophile commie