Monday, January 30, 2012

GOP self-destruct?

Geraghty explains what confirmation bias means.
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8 comments:

Arelcao Akleos said...

Romney's empirically unbeatable [there are many primaries he's the only guy on the ballot]. The GOP has managed the remarkable; it has made Obama and Da New Socialism our future.

Congrats. You are getting the tyranny you deserve.

1/31/2012 8:48 PM
Tecumseh said...

How about confirmation bias? Is this something real?

1/31/2012 9:56 PM
Arelcao Akleos said...

In a statistical sense, yes. It's taken into account in studies where you are trying to discern objectively the impact of some event or process and want to account for reaction being more likely to follow that bias already there.

1/31/2012 10:38 PM
Arelcao Akleos said...

Individually, it is something relatively "easy" to confront by forcing yourself to think, and rethink, over things..But that takes conscious effort, and will, and many folks can't be sustain the effort, or don't have the will to try.
Collectively, it has strong effect.
..But this is common sense. For example, if you believe Reagan was an Idiot, then hearing him give a good argument and knock Carter clean off his socks is, by itself, probably not daunt your conviction of his Idiocy. He would have to repeat the feat a number of times, with you paying attention, and with you being in a reflective mood, or having peeps around who started to pay attention to these sustained moments of impressive intelligence, etc... before you grudgingly start to give him some credit. Think of Herr Rott, for example. Or, more hopelessly, Charlie or the manifold denizens of Planet Pepe.

1/31/2012 10:44 PM
Arelcao Akleos said...

In short, it is not much more than what a certain influential applied social scientist said, back in the 1930's, "It is good for the Leaders that Men will not think".

1/31/2012 10:45 PM
Tecumseh said...

Agreed. But then, go back and read what Geraghty says: if you believe Newt is the second coming of Reagan, then no matter who'll criticize him, no matter how solidly conservative for decades on end -- you'll say he's a RINO turncoat pinko squishy quisling?

One needs a sense of perspective in these matters. And a realization no one is totally immune to confirmation bias -- if you're Pepe, yes, it's a >95% certainty, but can you be sure you're at <5%? How can one test the hypothesis on oneself? Sounds pretty darn impossible.

1/31/2012 11:16 PM
Tecumseh said...

Here is a challenge question for the "confirmation bias" theory: Is Rubio eligible to be VP?

2/01/2012 12:53 AM
Arelcao Akleos said...

I guess I've never been clear as to what "Natural born" means...

2/01/2012 2:22 AM

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