Saturday, October 07, 2006

Writing on the wall

Time to partition?
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4 comments:

The Darkroom said...

Assuming Turkey will allow it to happen, the Kurds would benefit greatly from this. But it'll be interesting to see whether the us will manage for this not to result in the creation of a de facto satellite of iran in the south and terror-breeding ground of disenfranchised sunnis in the middle.

10/08/2006 4:32 AM
Mr roT said...

I think the 'satellite of iran' idea makes no sense. The reason Iran is as it is is that it is a dictatorship. Even if the Shia in S Iraq wanted to be connected to Qom for religious reasons, it is far from clear they would want to be close to the govt. Cf. this. More likely they would want to subvert it. And that's why Iran is sticking their nose in S Iraq's business. They see it as an opportunity but also as a threat.

So if Iraq ends up 1/3 decent (Kurd) and that influences the Turks to quit their perpetual EU-sanctioned genocide, that's good.

If the Shias find something other than abject subservience to Teheran (which is likely) then that is good.

The Sunni triangle could be cordoned off like Gaza.

10/08/2006 1:17 PM
The Darkroom said...

I don't know how a S Iraq - Iran anschluss will be prevented in case of a partition if there is a serious effort at doing so on the part of Teheran, without another disastrous military intervention.

Suffice it to say that if the present administration manages that effort with the same level of competence as it did the rest of its iraqi adventure, we can safely bet on the creation of a Greater Iranian Islamic Republic. In all likelihood they will be out of public affairs by then but I'll concede that there is no guarantee that the democrats will fare any better.

10/08/2006 2:06 PM
Mr roT said...

Not gonna happen. You say the right is paranoid.

10/08/2006 6:12 PM

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